COVID 19 in Europe Now

[BobH]

I'm reading some things that indicate that the situation is again reaching critical levels in some areas. I don't know if the information I've seen is just the need to fill the news cycle monster or is real.

Hans, I read that the Netherlands have reached a new daily high number of cases. The UK news showed a graph with an exponential growth rate that would infect seemingly all of Britain. Spain is reported to be calling out the army to help care for cases. Reports from Sweden are not dire and report declining numbers. I've not seen anything from Italy or Germany or France or other countries.

What is the reality 'on the ground?'

[GeoffW]

I'm not in the ground, but I'm looking at stats from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and viewing graphs from individual countries.

Looking at Western European countries, it appears to be the case that, although cases have started to increase a lot again, fatalities have kept quite low. Reasons that I've seen given for this include younger people being infected, better treatment, and increased testing increasing the case count for people presenting with less obvious (or no) symptoms. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Australia - although the number of cases and deaths per million people is far lower than many countries. The US appears to be somewhere in between.

[HansV]

The reasons Geoff mentions are correct, as far as I know.
We (and probably many other countries) have in all likelihood had a far higher number of confirmed cases and fatalities in the first half of this year than officially reported. While the number of Covid deaths in The Netherlands stands at 6,281 at the moment, our Statistics Bureau has counted about 11,000 more deaths this year than during the same period last year.
But the number of cases is undoubtedly rising. Fortunately, the number of deaths per day is very low, at least for now...

[stuck]

...UK news showed a graph with an exponential growth rate that would infect seemingly all of Britain...

At the risk of crossing the line and so this will be my only contribution to this thread...

The amount of 'bad science' being touted as news about COVID-19 worries me. That graph being a prime example. At least the main 10 o'clock news on the BBC did try to explain that particular graph was nothing more than a simple extrapolation illustrating exponential growth i.e.that it was not a model of what was to come. In other words it has no more value than me using Excel to chart the exponential growth of anything that replicates in that way, one cell becomes 2, becomes 4, 8, 16 etc. say an amoeba. Such a chart does not mean we are all going to be swamped by amoeba.

This is a serious disease but charts like this one do not treat it seriously yet it was put out by the top Gov't medical officer

At the same consider the context. The UK population is around 67 million, the 7 day average death rate from COVID-19 at the moment is around 20. At the same time about 450 people die per day from heart disease.

Ken

[BobH]

Thank you for the reports, Gentlemen!

I am very glad to hear that rates of death per million attributed to this disease are relatively low. I am especially glad to hear that the UK numbers reported by the MOH are false and misleading.

I do see the worldometers.com numbers every day. It is better to have information from people I know and trust than to just read the statsitics.

Ken, fear not that your post is amiss. We have had our share of misinformation coming from sources that have been assigned credibility, perhaps undeservedly so.

Again, thank you. I think I shall blame the news cycle monster for the reports I saw.

[ChrisGreaves]

At the risk of crossing the line ...

Well! If Ken can cross the line, I will at least hop over it to see what it feels like, and just as quickly jump back to the safe side (grin).
You all love hearing about Bonavista, so here is what happened in Bonavista on Monday November 4th last year:

Ken.png

(1) Jeff left at 5am and drove the 3.5 hours to his job in St John's. (One of the many people who work in St John's, he drives back each Friday). While in St John's he eats, goes to the cafe or pub, and so on.

(2) Mark-the-passenger-taxi collected clients all along the peninsula, dropped one off in Clarenville, the remainder across St John's, and ended up at the International airport on the eastern end of town. "G'day, and Welcome to Newfoundland. (shakes hands all round) Here, let me get the bags!" (grabs three suitcases last handled in Cairo/London/Vancouver/<your favorite city here> and slings them into the luggage bay), drives everyone back to Bonavista (picking folks up from their doctor's/dentist's appointments and dropping them off in Trinity, Catalina, Elliston etc), finally dropping the international visitors at <your favorite hotel or B&B here> and after accepting the twenty/fifty dollar banknotes, shakes hands all round "Have a nice stay in Bonavista", and drives home for supper with his wife and the four kids, who have almost finished their school homework. The visitors head for Walkham Gate cafe/Pub for supper.

(3) John-the-freight-taxi collected a package to be returned to Walmart in Clarenville and then headed off to St John's to pick a laptop from Topsail Road for people like me.

(4) Folks drive to St John's for the day to pick up a stove, or 'fridge, the sort you just-can't-get in Bonavista.

Six days a week (2), (3) and (4) go on. It's a miracle they don't run into the Frito-Lay truck (replenishes the five stores in town daily to satisfy folks who buy 2-litre bottles of Pepsi when it is on special) or the 53-footer that refills the supermarket shelves ...

"We've always done it that way".

Until March 25th 2020.

That is, I figure that for four months we all (here) had a good chance of being infected, every hand-shaking hugging back-slapping here's-your-lunch one of us.

I just can't figure why self-isolation mandatory house-arrest (except for the truly vulnerable) is supposed to make much difference.

Ruefully yours
Chris